Drought conditions continue

After a dry summer season, September 2026 yielded a slightly wetter pattern for the region, with the Twin Cities receiving 3.91 inches of precipitation, nearly an inch more than normal for the month. This rainfall did little to combat the total seasonal precipitation deficit, as the year-to-date total remains over 6 inches below normal. As a result, drought conditions lingered throughout the month of September, with most of the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District remaining in a severe drought designation according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
SEPTEMBER RAINS BRIEFLY ELEVATE WATER LEVELS
Water levels remained low throughout September, despite two larger storm events. Multi-day rainfall September 16 through 19 yielded approximately 2 inches of precipitation across much of the watershed, resulting in Lake Minnetonka’s level rising 1.4 inches to 928.4 feet and Minnehaha Creek flow peaking at 39 cubic feet per second (cfs). Portions of the watershed received another approximately 1 inch of rain on September 29, which also produced a nominal response in water levels given persistent drought conditions throughout the 2026 season.

Currently, water levels remain significantly below normal, with the Creek flowing at approximately 2 cfs and Lake Minnetonka's level sitting 1.1 feet below its Ordinary High Water Level (OHWL) at 928.26 feet. Other lakes across the watershed are also experiencing low water levels with Lake Zumbra recently measured at 941.14 feet, approximately 1.9 feet below its OHWL, and Lake Nokomis recently recorded at 813.76 feet, 1.76 feet below its OHWL. 
In accordance with the operating plan, the Gray’s Bay Dam was closed on August 24, 2026, as Lake Minnetonka’s level fell below its natural runout elevation of 928.6 feet. The Dam will remain closed unless the Lake level rises above its natural runout elevation. Currently, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts minimal precipitation for the week ahead.

From late summer through fall, the Dam’s operating plan requires the Lake level be lowered toward its natural runout elevation, in advance of stoplog installation and winter ice-in, to provide capacity for spring snowmelt and reduce flood potential on both the Lake and Creek. MCWD will continue to evaluate water levels, along with short- and long-term forecasts, to determine Dam operations that align with the plan’s goals, ahead of winter ice-in.

2026 PRECIPITATION
As of October 9, 2026, the Twin Cities has received 20.23 inches of precipitation, which is 6.83 inches below normal for this time of year, according to the NWS.
Though September saw slightly above-normal precipitation for the month, this rainfall failed to address the seasonal deficit. May, June, July, and August each garnered a monthly precipitation deficit of at least 0.76 inches below normal, exacerbating dry conditions, and August 2026 became the fourth driest on record in the Twin Cities according to historic data. 

At least a portion of the watershed has been classified as moderate or severe drought since mid-July, marking 11 consecutive weeks of drought conditions for the region. The last time the region experienced a similar precipitation deficit pattern was during the Summer 2023 drought. 

Currently, the NWS predicts approximately 0.6 inches of rainfall for the region over the coming week, and its 8–14-day outlook predicts slightly below-normal precipitation. Below-normal precipitation is predicted for the month of October, which has a normal monthly total of 2.58 inches.
LAKE MINNETONKA
Lake Minnetonka currently sits at 928.26 feet, which is 4 inches below the Lake’s natural runout elevation of 928.6 feet, and over 1 foot below the OHWL of 929.4 feet.

This season, the Lake never reached its OHWL, as the watershed experienced below-normal precipitation. In September 2026, the Lake also remained below its natural runout elevation of 928.6 feet, resulting in the Dam’s continued closure.
Current and historical Lake Minnetonka readings and dam discharge rates can be viewed on MCWD’s website. Real-time readings for Lake Minnetonka can be viewed on the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) website.

MINNEHAHA CREEK FLOW
Currently, Minnehaha Creek is flowing at 1.81 cfs at Hiawatha Avenue. Creek flow fluctuated slightly throughout the month as the watershed received September precipitation, but remained well below paddling conditions.

Given the continued drought, Creek flow is expected to remain near its current rate, below its base flow discharge of 12 cfs, until the watershed receives significant precipitation. 
USGS provides real-time readings for Minnehaha Creek at Hiawatha Avenue, as well as historical flow and other water data for this station.