Panel predicts changes ahead

The DFL trifecta – control of both the Minnesota House of Representatives and Senate and the governor’s office – ended with the Nov. 5, 2024 election, ushering in what is likely to be a status quo legislative session and a struggle to come to agreement on a constitutionally required budget by the end of the legislative session.
That insight was one of several offered by a panel of election analysts November 21 at an event sponsored by Mill City Commons, a 55-plus community that “engages members through social, cultural, recreational, and educational programs and connects members to resources needed to maintain healthy and vibrant lives.” The event drew more than 150 attendees to the Mill City Museum in downtown Minneapolis.
The panel included Katherine Pearson, University of Minnesota Political Science Associate Professor specializing in American politics; Mary Lahammer, journalist, TV anchor, reporter and producer at Twin Cities PBS; and Blois Olson, WCCO-AM Morning Show Host and author of the political blog “Morning Take.”
With the Minnesota House of Representatives now tied 69-69, a power sharing agreement will replace DFL leadership. The battle for control of the Senate is so close it is likely to end up in court, delaying that body’s work before a final result is decided, according to Olson.
One clear trend is that the GOP increased its vote share outstate in the election, closing the gap on the DFL’s recent lead in statewide elections, Olson said. The northern Twin Cities Metro region, once strongly DFL, is now solidly GOP territory.
Lahammer attributed the GOP success Nov. 5 to the feeling of many voters that the DFL majority had been guilty of spending and policy “overreach” in the prior two years. She noted hearing many complaints from voters about the small tax rebate taxpayers received at a time when the state had a large surplus, with the DFL majority using most of the money for new or expanded spending.
Olson said the election was evidence of a “cultural shift” toward populism underway in the country, an anti-institutionalism on the Right and the Left. A clear example, he said, has been the negative response to the restrictions forced on Americans by their government in response to the Covid pandemic such as business and school closings and vaccine mandates. Pearson noted the significant increases in Republican votes nationally among non-college whites and Latino men.
Lahammer and Pearson suggested that much will depend on actions taken by Republican leaders the next few years.
Lahammer predicted that a “status quo” legislative session is the likely result next year. Lahammer and Olson agreed that the fact that the parties in both houses are now led by women would likely lead to a less acrimonious, more bipartisan environment. “They are already splitting up the committee memberships and leaders; they are three months ahead of where they were two years ago.”
“Less testosterone” will be noticeable, she said.